A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
